Today’s most notable feature was a paradoxical move toward higher yields immediately following a strong 5yr Treasury auction.  There was nothing in the auction results that would allow the weakness to be rationalized and there were no other overt market movers at the time.  We’re left to conclude this is a byproduct of traders circling the wagons as Friday’s month-end trading deadline approaches (markets are closed on Monday the 31st).  In any event, we were looking for a resistance bounce after yields traversed most of their recent range in the past 4 days and for now, it looks like we found it.

Market Movement Recap

08:50 AM

Weaker at first in the overnight session, but another EU bond rally led US yields back toward unchanged levels (German Bunds are 3bps lower on the day vs US 10yr yields 1bp higher at 1.57%).  MBS started the day roughly unchanged as well, but have lost 2 ticks so far (-0.06). 

12:42 PM

MBS stumbled a bit between 1030am and noon, with the the only real scapegoat being high supply at today’s Fed buying operation.  We could also consider that things have been a bit bullish on the Treasury side of the bond market so far this week, but we’ll see what’s what after the 1pm 5yr auction.

01:40 PM

paradoxically weaker after a fairly strong 5yr Treasury auction. No obvious scapegoats other than a reshuffling of trading positions and a bit of a curve-steepening bias.  10yr up 2bps now at 1.579.  UMBS 2.5 down an eighth at 103-23 (103.72).

03:31 PM

Bonds crossed the 3pm CME close with modest weakness intact and no major drama since the modest sell-off that followed the 5yr Treasury auction.  Same trading levels as the last update.


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

UMBS 2.5

103-23 : -0-04

Treasuries

10 YR

1.5790 : +0.0150

Pricing as of 5/26/21 3:35PMEST

Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates

1:27PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: MBS At Lows After 5yr Auction

9:01AM  :  Pushing Back Against Overnight Weakness to Start Unchanged


Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, May 26
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 269.8 265.3
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3168.8 3413.3
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 61
Thursday, May 27
8:30 GDP Prelim (%) Q1 6.5 6.4
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Apr 0.7 0.8
8:30 Core CapEx (%)* Apr 0.8 1.2
8:30 Continued Claims (ml) w/e 3.680 3.751
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 425 444
10:00 Pending Sales Index Apr 111.3
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Apr 0.8 1.9
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 62

By Matthew Graham , dated 2021-05-26 15:35:05

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Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

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