This week began with a decisive breakout to higher yields in the bond market. Stimulus negotiations have been in focus and some sort of deal remains totally guaranteed, but with unknown timing and magnitude. Bonds braced for that reality by moving weaker and then narrowly sideways as the week progressed. Volatility could be relatively more contained until we get more clarity on stimulus.
Market Movement Recap
Stocks were essentially flat overnight while bonds mostly rallied until domestic trading got underway in the US. After the early selling pressure, both Treasuries and MBS are unchanged versus yesterday’s latest levels.
Bonds lost ground at 11:45am ET due to stimulus headlines (more here), but have mostly managed to get back under the relevant technical ceiling in terms of 10yr yields (.785% currently vs a .79% ceiling). 2.0 UMBS are now outperforming, down only 1 tick on the day at 103-07 (103.22).
Bonds gaining a bit more ground now–faster than stock market weakness would suggest. 10yr safely back under .79 ceiling at .774%. 2.0 UMBS still down 1 tick (0.03) on the day. Markets are drifting without much guidance heading into the 3-day weekend.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
103-07 : -0-01
0.7770 : +0.0100
|Pricing as of 10/9/20 4:57PMEST|
Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates
11:53AM : ALERT ISSUED: Bonds Losing Ground on Trump Stimulus Headlines
10:24AM : Bonds Find Footing After McConnell Downplays Quick Stimulus Deal
MBS Live Chat Highlights
Matt Graham : “Doesn’t matter what anyone says or thinks right now. There was an overwhelming majority who thought rates would fall after Trump was elected. That lasted almost until Nov 9th.”
Matt Graham : “markets will make their move if they make one, then most of the news an analysis will retcon to fit that move, and the few who called it will proclaim their clairvoyance until the next big call where they fall flat on their face and fade into obscurity or the CNBC blackbook of crackpots willing to make bold calls to get clicks and tweets.”