Fed Minutes Today at 2pm EST

Follow the markets live as the Fed Minutes are released at 2pm EST today.

It’s Fed Day. Are you ready?

If you’ve been following the MBS Commentary, you know what a big deal this afternoon could be. Markets have been preparing for it for weeks and MBS Live members have been on top of those movements every step of the way.

This afternoon, when markets are convulsing mere milliseconds after the Fed Announcement, MBS Live members will know what’s going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price stream and alerts is unmatched.



MBS RECAP: Valiant Effort But This Week’s Bounce-Back Effort Falls Short

Insult, meet injury?  Oh, you’re already acquainted?!  Of course you are… It’s 2021 and we’re talking about the bond market after all.  Just over 24 hours after bonds looked set to maintain a friendly trend all week, we’re closing near the weakest levels of the week and firmly rejecting a break below 1.62% (a level that’s served as a good line in the sand for stronger rally prospects).  Most frustratingly, there are no obvious scapegoats for today’s price action–just a general 2-day trend leading back from yesterday morning’s low yields.  

Econ Data / Events

  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Annual Core PCE 1.4 vs 1.5 f’cast, 1.5 prev

  • Consumer Sentiment 84.9 vs 83.6 f’cast, 83.0 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:55 AM

Bonds weaker overnight with losses focused on European hours (stronger data, mainly).  We could also call this a rejection of a break below 1.62% in 10yr yields.  Either way, the losses are merely “moderate” so far today and we’re still well shy of Monday’s 1.70+ highs (1.665% currently).  MBS are down less than an eighth.  Minimal positive impact from PCE data (slightly weaker core inflation).

10:50 AM

Bonds pushing back against overnight weakness a bit more, but progress remains slow.  10yr yields up only 1.6bps now at 1.65% and 2.5 UMBS down only 1-2 ticks depending on the moment (-0.3 to -0.06).  

12:41 PM

AM rally fizzled just after 11am.  No particular reason.  MBS corrected a bit more abruptly than Treasuries, but both have stabilized in the past few minutes.  UMBS 2.5s are down only 1 tick on the day and 10yr yields are up only 1.6 bps at 1.65%.

05:03 PM

More selling… steady all day really, despite a brief stin from 10am to noon.  Yields at highs of day.  MBS prices at lows.  No new specific motivation.  Very linear 2-day trend.  Bonds just sticking to the script, apparently. 


About the Author


Chief Operating Officer,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live

A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators.

more


Discuss the MBS and Mortgage Markets on Our Streaming Dashboard

By Matthew Graham , dated 2021-03-26 17:13:25

Source link

Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

Leave a Reply