On back to back Monday mornings at 6:45am, both of the frontrunner covid vaccine trials have announced surprisingly strong late stage results (Pfizer last week and Moderna today). While it’s still early to know how long-term efficacy and safety will pan out, if anything is capable of instilling optimism in financial markets (and the global community in general), this is it. But the tangible justification for that optimism also comes with a fairly lengthy waiting period. And between now and then, we have the world’s most severe spike in covid case counts to deal with heading into the winter months.
It remains to be seen how markets will balance huge short-term downsides for the economy (not to mention the “permanent” changes that may endure post-covid) with longer-term hope of normalcy. If this morning’s early trading is any indication, it’s still anyone’s race. Bonds didn’t spike nearly as much as they did after last week’s Pfizer news and stocks have already erased their gains (not that they were very big to begin with).
The rest of the week could be interesting as it’s seen as the last full trading week of the year before things get wonky for the holidays. Narrow ranges are common in the 2nd half of November. On years where we DON’T see them, it’s typically when yields are in the midst of larger scale move (one that continues into the new year). Given the pace and trajectory of the current “larger scale move,” fans of low rates wouldn’t really want to see it continue into the new year.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
103-11 : +0-01
0.9010 : +0.0080
|Pricing as of 11/16/20 10:18AMEST|
Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar