On back to back Monday mornings at 6:45am, both of the frontrunner covid vaccine trials have announced surprisingly strong late stage results (Pfizer last week and Moderna today).  While it’s still early to know how long-term efficacy and safety will pan out, if anything is capable of instilling optimism in financial markets (and the global community in general), this is it.  But the tangible justification for that optimism also comes with a fairly lengthy waiting period.  And between now and then, we have the world’s most severe spike in covid case counts to deal with heading into the winter months. 

20201116 open.png

It remains to be seen how markets will balance huge short-term downsides for the economy (not to mention the “permanent” changes that may endure post-covid) with longer-term hope of normalcy.  If this morning’s early trading is any indication, it’s still anyone’s race.  Bonds didn’t spike nearly as much as they did after last week’s Pfizer news and stocks have already erased their gains (not that they were very big to begin with).

20201116 open2.png

The rest of the week could be interesting as it’s seen as the last full trading week of the year before things get wonky for the holidays.  Narrow ranges are common in the 2nd half of November.  On years where we DON’T see them, it’s typically when yields are in the midst of larger scale move (one that continues into the new year).  Given the pace and trajectory of the current “larger scale move,” fans of low rates wouldn’t really want to see it continue into the new year.

20201116 open3.png

MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.


UMBS 2.0

103-11 : +0-01


10 YR

0.9010 : +0.0080

Pricing as of 11/16/20 10:18AMEST

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Nov 16
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Nov 12.75 10.50
Tuesday, Nov 17
8:30 Import prices mm (%) Oct 0.2 0.3
8:30 Export prices mm (%) Oct 0.3 0.6
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Oct 0.5 1.9
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Oct 1.0 -0.6
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Nov 85 85
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Sep 0.6 0.3
Wednesday, Nov 18
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 293.5
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 3973.1
8:30 House starts mm: change (%) Oct 1.9
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml) Oct 1.460 1.415
8:30 Building permits: number (ml) Oct 1.560 1.545
8:30 Build permits: change mm (%) Oct 4.7
Thursday, Nov 19
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * Nov 22.0 32.3
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 707 709
10:00 Exist. home sales % chg (%)* Oct -1.2 9.4
10:00 Existing home sales (ml)* Oct 6.45 6.54
10:00 Leading index chg mm (%) Oct 0.7 0.7

By Matthew Graham , dated 2020-11-16 10:20:53

Source link

Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

Leave a Reply