Bonds experienced a bit of weakness today, but 10yr yields bounced almost perfectly at the range ceiling of .96%.  That means they made it all the way from November through today in essentially the same narrow range.  All the while the biggest potential driver of a breakout has been the election results due out tonight.  That means tomorrow could be a very big day, for better or worse.  Granted, these sorts of big ticket market movers don’t always live up to the hype, but all we can ever really know in advance is that some events have a lot more potential than others to move markets.  This is one of those!

Econ Data / Events

  • 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)

  • ISM Manufacturing 60.7 vs 56.6 f’cast, 57.5 prev

  • ISM Prices Paid 77.6 vs 65.7 f’cast, 65.4 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:37 AM

Slightly weaker overnight with most of the movement seen in the European session.  Ranges persist.  10yr yr up only 1.2bps and MBS just a hair weaker with 1.5 coupons still trading over 101.  All eyes remain focused on Georgia senate outcome.

10:08 AM

Noticeable, moderate weakness following stronger ISM Manufacturing data.  10yr up 3.2bps at .95% and 1.5 UMBS down 5 ticks (.19) at 100-29 (100.91).

03:43 PM

Bonds have recovered a bit from AM weakness with 10yr yields moving roughly 1.5bps lower from the highs (currently .947%).  MBS are still down more than an eighth of a point, but they had been down a quarter of a point about an hour ago.  


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

UMBS 2.0

103-24 : -0-06

Treasuries

10 YR

0.9470 : +0.0300

Pricing as of 1/5/21 3:51PMEST

Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates

11:46AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely

10:07AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Becoming a Possibility

8:37AM  :  Slightly Weaker Overnight; Fed’s Bostic Comments on Bond Buying


Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jan 05
9:45 ISM-New York index Dec 817.6 811.9
10:00 ISM Mfg Prices Paid Dec 77.6 65.7 65.4
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Dec 60.7 56.6 57.5
Wednesday, Jan 06
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 316.3
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 4169.0
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Dec 88 307
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) Nov 0.7 1.0

By Matthew Graham , dated 2021-01-05 15:53:40

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Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

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