Residential construction data for October was mixed.
The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported
that the rate of permitting flattened and completions declined. Housing starts,
usually considered the key number, continued to climb.

Permits for residential construction were issued at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,545,000 units, virtually identical to the September
pace after its revision down from 1,553,000. Permits have grown by 2.8 percent
year-over-year.

The September rate had been higher than anticipated, so
builders may now be working off a backlog. Still, October’s permits were only
slightly less than forecast. Analysts polled by Econoday had looked for a range
of 1,520,000 to 1,600,000 with a consensus of 1,560,000.

Permits for single-family houses rose 0.6 percent to a
rate of 1,120,000 units and were 20.6 percent higher than in October 2019. The
September estimate was revised from 1,119,000 units down to 1,113,000.
Multifamily permits dropped by 5.9 percent to 365,000 units and were 30.6
percent lower on an annual basis.

On a non-adjusted basis there were 133,000 permits
issued compared to 133,300 in September and single-family permits declined from
94,700 to 94,500.

For the year-to-date (YTD) through October there have
been 1,192,900 permits issued compared to 1,155,100 for the same period last
year, a 3.3 percent increase. Single-family permits YTD total 807,700, up 10.9
percent while multifamily permits at 347,100 are 11.4 percent lower.

Housing starts continued to increase, rising 4.9
percent in October to put them up 14.2 percent from the rate a year earlier.
The report estimates that starts were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1,530,000
compared to an upwardly revised (from 1,415,000) rate of 1,459,000 in
September.

October’s results were at the top of analysts’ projections
which ranged from 1,430,000 to 1,530,000. The consensus was 1,460,000.

Single-family starts fared even better, rising 6.4
percent from September’s 1,108,000 units to 1,179,000 units. The September
estimate was not revised. Single family starts have exceeded those in October
2019 by 29.4 percent. Multifamily starts however were down 3.2 percent and are
19.9 percent below their year-earlier pace.

Joel Kan’s, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Assistant Vice
President of Economic and Industry Forecasting, said the following about
housing starts. “Housing starts increased for the second straight month to a
seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.53 million starts – the highest since this
February. Most notably for the housing market’s continued supply shortages, the
pace was driven by 1.179 million single-family starts. Single-family
construction has now increased for six consecutive months and is at the highest
level since 2007. The rise in construction is in line with other data on
homebuilder confidence and should help to alleviate the supply and demand
imbalances seen in most parts of the country.”

There were 132,000 residential units started in
October, 101,000 of them single-family houses. The September numbers were
128,800 and 96,300, respectively.

Housing starts are 6.7 percent higher YTD in 2020 than
during the same period last year at 1,150,000 units. Single-family starts have
increased by 8.6 percent to 815,300 and starts in buildings with five or more
units are 2.3 percent above those during the first 10 months of 2019.

Completions, which are always volatile, fell 4.5
percent in October to an annual rate of 1,343,000 units but remain up 5.4
percent from a year earlier. September completions originally estimated at
1,413,000 were revised down to 1,406,000.

Single-family completions, at an annual rate of
883,000, represented a decline of 3.4 percent from the September rate of
914,000 units and was 4.0 percent lower than a year earlier. Multifamily completions
were down 7.3 percent for the month but 27.6 percent higher year-over-year.

There were 121,100 residential units completed in
October, down 100 units from the previous month. Single family completions
increased from 78,600 to 80,900.

YTD completions are up 2.5 percent to 1,056,900 from
1,030,600. The number of single-family homes completed is up 1.0 percent thus
far in 2020 at 744,200 and multifamily completions have risen 6.3 percent to 304,000.

At the end of the reporting period there were an
estimated 1,224,000 units under construction, 564,000 of them single-family
houses. There was also a backlog of 179,000 authorized permits of which 104,000
were for single-family houses.

Permits in the Northeast declined 9.5
percent for the month and 13.5 percent on an annual basis. Starts plunged 38.6
percent which put them down by 32.8 percent year-over-year. The rate of
completions rose 2.1 percent from September but lags the previous October by
18.5 percent.

The Midwest saw permits increase by
2.9 percent from September and 16.4 percent year-over-year. Housing starts rose
3.3 percent and 23.0 percent for the two periods. Construction was finished at
a rate that was down 2.5 percent for the month but 23.3 percent higher than a
year earlier.

There was an increase of 0.7 percent
in the number of permits in the South and they were 3.9 percent higher than the
same month in 2019. Starts rose 12.9 percent compared to September and 24.3
percent on an annual basis. Completions fell 5.4 percent but were up 10.9
percent from October of last year.

Permits gained 0.5 percent in the
West compared to both the previous month and to October 2019. Starts increased
by 4.2 percent and 5.4 percent for the month and the year. Completions slowed
by 5.5 percent and 4.2 percent from the two earlier periods.

By Jann Swanson , dated 2020-11-18 15:16:00

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Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

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