Fed Minutes Today at 2pm EST

Follow the markets live as the Fed Minutes are released at 2pm EST today.

It’s Fed Day. Are you ready?

If you’ve been following the MBS Commentary, you know what a big deal this afternoon could be. Markets have been preparing for it for weeks and MBS Live members have been on top of those movements every step of the way.

This afternoon, when markets are convulsing mere milliseconds after the Fed Announcement, MBS Live members will know what’s going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price stream and alerts is unmatched.

MBS RECAP: Sobering Reminder About Rising Rate Trend

By yesterday afternoon, the bond market had managed to string together several of the most reassuring days of 2021.  10yr yields were close to 1.50% by the end of the day and the next significant ceiling at 1.62% seemed safely overhead.  But only a few hours into the new trading day, 10yr yields surged up to 1.64+, the highest levels in more than year.  Average mortgage rates are close to being able to say the same (highest in 11 months).  Today’s rout provides a wake up call as to the nature of the rising rate environment.  

Econ Data / Events

  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Core Producer Prices (y/y) 2.5 vs 2.6 f’cast, 2.0 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:51 AM

Much weaker overnight with big hits coming at random times for no apparent reason (speaks to embedded bearish momentum, technicals, and positioning).  10yr up almost 7bps to 1.604%.  UMBS 2.5 coupons down a quarter point.

10:35 AM

10yr has broken the 1.62% ceiling, triggering additional stop-loss selling (up and over 1.63%).  UMBS 2.5s were down nearly half a point at their weakest levels, but have recovered a few ticks in the past few minutes.  Either way, not what we were hoping to see this morning on top of earlier weakness we weren’t hoping to see today. 

02:48 PM

All of today’s damage was done by 10:30am and things have been very flat since the last update.  At this point, whatever happens in the last 2 hours of trading doesn’t have any major implications for next week.  10yr is up 10bps at 1.63% and 2.5 UMBS are down more than 3/8ths of a point at 103.

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live

A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators.


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By Matthew Graham , dated 2021-03-12 15:36:45

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Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

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