We’ve been tracking both a sideways trend and an uptrend in bond yields for more than 2 months now.  The uptrend has been winning (and SHOULD win), but bonds were strong enough today to make a case for a return to the sideways range.  With rates near all-time lows, “sideways” is a victory.

Econ Data / Events

  • 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) – Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  

  • Philly Fed Biz Survey: +27.5 vs -23.0 f’cast, -43.1 prev

  • Jobless Claims: 1.508m vs 1.3m f’cast, 1.566m prev

Market Movement Recap

08:48 AM

Bonds were stronger out of the gate overnight as stocks slumped.  Correlation remains extremely high between the two.  After a rebound toward higher yields and stock prices, markets reversed course again just before 5am, moving lower into the domestic session.  Stocks have bounced slightly since 8am, but bonds are trying to hold their ground with 10yr yields trading near 0.70% vs a ceiling range of .72-.74.  MBS are underperforming, but also in positive territory (nearly an eighth of a point).

12:24 PM

Treasuries have been steady as stocks recoup a portion of overnight losses.  MBS are near their best levels of the day, up an eighth of a point, still, just under 102 for 2.0 coupons.

02:24 PM

VERY slow, sideways day for both MBS and Treasuries (albeit sideways at stronger levels).  No major change from the last update.

MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.


UMBS 2.0

101-31 : +0-03


10 YR

0.6920 : -0.0410

Pricing as of 6/18/20 3:08PMEST

Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates

8:43AM  :  Mixed Signals in The Econ Data, But No Major Reaction So Far

Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jun 18
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * Jun 27.5 -23.0 -43.1
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 20.544 19.800 20.929
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 1508 1300 1542
10:00 Leading index chg mm (%) May +2.8 2.3 -4.4

By Matthew Graham , dated 2020-06-18 15:10:45

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Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

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