We’ve been following .58% in 10yr yields for months as the best candidate for the bottom of “the range.”  Now that mortgage rates and MBS spreads have largely settled relative to Treasuries, we might wonder if they’ll also have a tough time moving lower.  The big caveat here is that there’s still a chance that the .58% bounces are purely coincidental.  If it continues to happen, we’ll be talking more and more about it.

Market Movement Recap

08:14 AM

Bonds modestly stronger overnight despite slightly higher stock prices.  0.58% resistance remains intact underfoot.  2.0 UMBS starting out almost an eighth of a point higher.

09:13 AM

Bonds briefly improved after Mnuchin comments (lower unemployment benefits and no payroll tax cut in the next round of stimulus), but are struggling to stay below .58%.  2.0 UMBS are an eighth of a point higher.

12:06 PM

MBS now down an eighth from the highs.  10yr yields unable to break below .58%.  Low volatility overall.  

03:55 PM

MBS continue to underperform despite Treasuries returning toward their better levels of the day.    10yr yields are down nearly 2bps at .582.  2.0 UMBS are down at the lows of the day, – 2 ticks (-0.06) vs yesterday and trading at 102-29 (102.91).  


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

UMBS 2.0

102-29 : -0-01

Treasuries

10 YR

0.5790 : -0.0160

Pricing as of 7/23/20 4:13PMEST

Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates

3:55PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: MBS Revisiting Lows; Modest Reprice Risk Remains

12:06PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds Struggle With Resistance; Slight Reprice Risk

9:13AM  :  Bonds Briefly Improve After Mnuchin Comments


MBS Live Chat Highlights

Mark Ingram  :  “Shameless Plug – I’ve been a member for 2 months now. I LOVE the group chat and the live updates. As a 20+ year vet flying solo, this is the support and technology I have needed. Thanks MG & the Gang!”


Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jul 23
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 16.197 17.067 17.338
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 1416 1300 1300
Friday, Jul 24
9:45 PMI-Composite (source:Markit) * Jul 47.9
10:00 New home sales chg mm (%)* Jun 4.0 16.6
10:00 New home sales-units mm (ml)* Jun 0.700 0.676

By Matthew Graham , dated 2020-07-23 16:15:06

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Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

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