Fed Minutes Today at 2pm EST

Follow the markets live as the Fed Minutes are released at 2pm EST today.

It’s Fed Day. Are you ready?

If you’ve been following the MBS Commentary, you know what a big deal this afternoon could be. Markets have been preparing for it for weeks and MBS Live members have been on top of those movements every step of the way.

This afternoon, when markets are convulsing mere milliseconds after the Fed Announcement, MBS Live members will know what’s going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price stream and alerts is unmatched.

MBS RECAP: Powell Punts on SLR; Bonds Survive… Sorta

Today could have been much worse even though no one will look back on it as a great day for bonds.  We started out at the highest yields in more than a year after heavy-ish losses overnight.  After a healthy dose volatility, the 10yr was right in line with AM levels as the Fed announcement hit.  More 2-way volatility followed and it was ultimately up to Powell to set the tone. When asked about the SLR extension, he said an announcement would happen in the coming days.  Markets interpreted that as “something is better than nothing,” but buyers didn’t get carried away.  The rally brought Treasuries back to unchanged levels, and MBS into slightly stronger levels as of 430pm ET. 

Econ Data / Events

  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Housing Starts 1.421m vs 1.56m f’cast
    Building Permits 1.682m vs 1.75m f’cast

Market Movement Recap

08:26 AM

Persistently weaker overnight after starting flat.  Sharper weakness at 7am following the trial result of another vaccine.  10yr now up 5bps at 1.67%.  UMBS 2.5 coupons down just over a quarter point.

11:50 AM

steady Treasury weakness since 1030am.  European bond markets leading.  May have seen a ceiling just over 1.68%.   MBS outperforming.  Bonds generally jittery ahead of Fed.

01:47 PM

Nice bounce back after EU close, although bonds remain weaker on the day.  MBS at best levels, down only an eighth now after being down more than a quarter point earlier.  

02:40 PM

Extremely volatile after Fed, but holding at the day’s best levels as Powell begins answering questions

03:46 PM

A bit of sparkle is coming off the rally after a very nice intraday recovery.  10yr was as low as 1.62% but is back up to 1.644%.  2.5 UMBS are an eighth of a point off their highs but still very slightly stronger vs yesterday (but maybe not by the time you read this?  things are moving quickly).

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live

A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators.


Discuss the MBS and Mortgage Markets on Our Streaming Dashboard

By Matthew Graham , dated 2021-03-17 16:36:33

Source link

Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

Leave a Reply