Last week ended on a sour note with moderately brisk selling on Friday erasing what had been a relatively hopeful trend up until that point. Bonds continue looking for evidence that the rising rate trend of 2021 has finally encountered its first meaningful ceiling–emphasis on “looking” part.
The week ahead is notable mainly for hosting month/quarter-end–something that means more than a mere calendar designation when it comes to markets (why?). Specifically, we may see a few big moves that are completely disconnected from econ data or news headlines–especially on Wednesday.
After that, Thursday is notable as the first day of a new month can also be heavily influenced by calendar-related tradeflows. Friday brings the big jobs report–always a potential jumping off point for new trading momentum, regardless of the result.
From a technical standpoint, yields are still trying to break below 1.62% in terms of 10yr Treasuries. Last week looked hopeful in that regard until a modest bounce on Thursday and stronger negative confirmation on Friday. Now it’s a showdown between 1.75% as a ceiling and 1.62% as a floor.