Fed Minutes Today at 2pm EST

Follow the markets live as the Fed Minutes are released at 2pm EST today.

It’s Fed Day. Are you ready?

If you’ve been following the MBS Commentary, you know what a big deal this afternoon could be. Markets have been preparing for it for weeks and MBS Live members have been on top of those movements every step of the way.

This afternoon, when markets are convulsing mere milliseconds after the Fed Announcement, MBS Live members will know what’s going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price stream and alerts is unmatched.

MBS RECAP: Moderate Weakness But No Major Quarter-End Drama

Today is the last day of the month and quarter.  That means more for financial markets than it does for many other sectors.  While there is no hard and fast rule concerning timing, there is historically increased trading activity at the end of month (and quarter) as various types of money managers rebalance their portfolios or adjust their holdings to match underlying benchmarks.  Read more about the Treasury/MBS specific month/quarter-end considerations HERE.  In other news, Biden is expected to speak at 4:20pm ET today with more details on the infrastructure plan.  This is late enough in the trading day that it’s more of a consideration for tomorrow (and even then, most of the details have already trickled out). 

Econ Data / Events

  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • ADP Employment 517k vs 550k f’cast, 176k prev

  • Pending Home Sales -10.6 vs -2.6 f’cast (-0.5 y/y)

Market Movement Recap

08:23 AM

Little-changed after ADP despite noticeable volume surge.  Slightly weaker overnight.  Currently up 1.3bps in 10yr at 1.723%.  MBS are down 2 ticks (0.06). 

12:15 PM

Fairly quiet overall with modest gains heading into the end of the EU session (noon ET).  MBS, specifically, improved just after the 10-10:20am Fed buying operation, which is interesting considering it was GNMA not UMBS.  2.5 UMBS are at the best levels of the day, up 3 ticks (.09) at 102-22 (102.69).  10yr yields are unchanged at 1.71.

01:51 PM

Coming off better levels now.  Heaviest volume of the day–assumed to be month/quarter-end tradeflows, but not a ton of volatility to show for it.  10yr yield up 2bps at 1.73% and UMNS 2.5 coupons now unchanged on the day (down 0.09 from the highs)

03:22 PM

3pm has come and gone without much ‘month-end’ fanfare.  The weakness leading up to the 3pm close was already ramping up as of the last update, but yields did indeed top out right at 2:59pm ET. They’re now back down to 1.73% again and UMBS 2.5 coupons are back to unchanged levels.

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live

A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators.


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By Matthew Graham , dated 2021-03-31 16:21:24

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Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

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