There really wasn’t much by way of riveting new developments on the radar heading into this week.  A smattering of Fed speakers and relatively inconsequential data in early July aren’t up to the task of creating big-picture momentum in the age of coronavirus.  That’s not to say the Fed or the econ data cannot move markets–simply that more important versions would be required.  For instance, we would need something like an official Fed policy change or a truly surprising shift in data confirmed across multiple significant reports.  That’s hard to accomplish with only one significant piece of data this week having already come out on Monday.

For bonds (and stocks for that matter), we’ve officially begun the waiting game.  The prelude to this was the April/May push back toward more risk-tolerant market levels and the subsequent reconsideration of that risk-tolerance due to rising covid concerns.  In directional terms, this equates to a move higher for bond yields followed by a move lower–pretty simple stuff.  Until the market shows us some other reality, the baseline assumption is that we’re back in the dominant post-covid-shock range of .58-.74 in 10yr Treasury yields.

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Mortgage rates have improved more consistently than Treasury yields because they performed so poorly by comparison earlier in the saga.

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MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.


UMBS 2.0

102-22 : -0-03


10 YR

0.6550 : +0.0070

Pricing as of 7/8/20 8:48AMEST

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jul 08
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 308.7
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 3359.2
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)*
15:00 Consumer credit (bl) May -15.50 -68.78

By Matthew Graham , dated 2020-07-08 08:49:58

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Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

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