This will be a deceptively informative week for financial markets. The biggest consideration continues to be the exponential growth of covid cases in several states and the concern about exponential growth in other states. While CA, FL, TX, and AZ are in the spotlight, other states that have begun to ease quarantine measures are worried they’ll follow a similar path. If they do, this would be the week where that would become more apparent. The most logical result would be more “pulling back” in stock prices and bond yields.
Covid cases (and yes, the market is smart enough to account for increased testing) may be the biggest market mover, but it’s not the only one. Economic data is a natural counterpart to case counts (but the fear is that as case counts rise, econ data may change its tune from “recovering” to “relapsing”). By the end of the week, we’ll have Chicago PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment, and the big jobs report, just to name a few of the highlights.
Notably, the jobs report will hit on Thursday morning instead of the typical Friday. This is due to Friday being the observance day for Independence Day. In addition, bond markets will close 3 hours early on Thursday, making for a condensed trading window following the jobs data.
Last but not least, it’s “month-end” and also the end of the quarter for financial markets. This can bring additional seemingly random movement to both stocks and bonds as money managers are required to adjust their portfolios to match the decisions made by account-holders and the changes in the published benchmark that the fund adheres to.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
102-07 : -0-02
0.6530 : +0.0150
|Pricing as of 6/29/20 8:48AMEST|
Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar