Bond markets will close early this Friday and will remain fully closed next Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.  3.5-day weekends can often see a shift in trading patterns as investors account for an extra uncertainty due to an extra day and a half of untradeable weekend time.  That can still be the case, to some extent, but markets are arguably already settling into a constant state of “accounting for uncertainty.”

In the short term, bonds have to consider the prospect of any significant shift in the coronavirus narrative.  In the longer term, uncertainty surrounds the timing and nature of the economic recovery.  Given that outlook, there hasn’t been much of a reason to go anywhere quickly.  The biggest inspirations have been related to new debt supply and the age-old custom of following a along with stocks.

In the shorter-term, stocks and bonds have been quite well connected at times.

20200518 open

In the longer term, the connection isn’t as clear, but the two are nonetheless in the same boat with respect to leveling-off and trading a sideways range.

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This is a relatively narrow range for bond yields, but it still leaves plenty of room for movement in either direction.  There are a few ways to approach it in terms of an indicator for trading momentum.  If we view it as a flat range, the best case to be made for a floor is at 0.58% (teal line below).  If we view it as an ascending trend channel, the yellow lines are the best candidates.  Either way, the 2nd half of last week implies a resistance/floor bounce.  Today’s early weakness helps solidify that case.

Bottom line: bonds begin the week in a defensive stance, and we should defend against a run back up to last week’s yield highs in the mid 0.7’s until and unless a big, friendly bounce tries to change our minds.

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MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.


FNMA 2.0

101-30 : -0-01


10 YR

0.6780 : +0.0380

Pricing as of 5/18/20 9:02AMEST

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, May 18
10:00 NAHB housing market indx May 35 30
Tuesday, May 19
8:30 House starts mm: change (%) Apr -22.3
8:30 Build permits: change mm (%) Apr -7.0
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml) Apr 0.927 1.216
8:30 Building permits: number (ml) Apr 1.000 1.350
Wednesday, May 20
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 3709.3
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 243.3
Thursday, May 21
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * May -41.5 -56.6
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 2400 2981
9:45 PMI-Services (Markit) * May 30.0 26.7
10:00 Existing home sales (ml)* Apr 4.30 5.27
10:00 Exist. home sales % chg (%)* Apr -18.9 -8.5
10:00 Leading index chg mm (%) Apr -5.5 -6.7

By Matthew Graham , dated 2020-05-18 09:05:01

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Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

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