Powell’s speech was the only Fed communication on the calendar today, but they surprised markets by dropping a policy change on their website.  Suddenly, the journalistic coverage of today’s Powell speech no longer seems insanely presumptuous.  But did the Fed really say anything new?  And if not, why are markets reacting like they are?  We’ll discuss this in today’s video.

Market Movement Recap

08:16 AM

Moderately stronger to start after quiet overnight trading.  Treasuries were unchanged until 3am, then rallied modestly with European bonds.  Stocks are effectively unchanged and MBS are opening 3 ticks (0.09) higher.

09:23 AM

Both stocks and bonds improved moderately but quickly as the Fed surprised the market with an actual policy document on its website (more on that HERE).  10yr yields were down more than 3bps for a moment, but have bounced 1bp up to .667.  2.0 UMBS rallied and bounced as well–currently right in line with pre-Powell highs.  Even as this is typed, a potential knee-jerk bounce is taking shape.  More to follow if that continues…

09:46 AM

Knee-jerk confirmed.  MBS down nearly a quarter point from the post-Powell highs.  10yr yields up 2.5bps on the day.  

01:09 PM

7yr auction was decent–not decent enough to change bond market momentum all by itself, but yields are off their highs by just over 1bp.  MBS are down only an eighth of a point on the day.


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

UMBS 2.0

102-28 : -0-07

Treasuries

10 YR

0.7423 : +0.0553

Pricing as of 8/27/20 3:40PMEST

Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates

10:54AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing

9:46AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds Bouncing Quickly Weaker

9:16AM  :  Powell Says What Markets Expected; Bonds Rallying


Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Aug 27
8:30 GDP Prelim (%)* Q2 -31.7 -32.5 -32.9
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 14.535 14.450 14.844
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 1006 1000 1106
9:20 Powell Jackson Hole Speech *
10:00 Pending Sales Index Jul 122.1 116.1
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Jul +5.9 3.0 16.6
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 47
Friday, Aug 28
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Jul 1.2 0.9
10:00 Consumer Inflation Expectations (1yr) (%) Aug 3.0
10:00 Consumer Inflation Expectations (5yr) (%) Aug 2.7
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Aug 72.8 72.8

By Matthew Graham , dated 2020-08-27 15:42:27

Source link

Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

Leave a Reply