Forget the economy. Forget covid. Forget Fed policy. Those things will all be back to move the bond market fairly soon, but first, there will be an adjustment in response to the outcome of today’s Georgia senate elections. Polls are open now and will remain open until 7pm.
That means the results are not counted until polls close, so this will not be a market mover today, and if the races are close enough, it’s not even a guarantee for tomorrow, although that is certainly a risk. Between now and then, we should expect bonds to remain in the prevailing range with 10yr yields hesitant to stray too far below 0.90 or above 0.96.
Today’s only relevant economic data is ISM Non-Manufacturing at 10am ET. This is typically one of the more capable market movers, and while it could have a small impact today, markets are more likely to avoid rocking the boat too much ahead of election results. If GA begins announcing results late tonight, overnight market movement could be exceptionally volatile. The more volatile outcome would likely be democratic sweep. In other words, there’s probably more selling to be done in bonds if democrats win the Senate than buying if Republicans retain it.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
103-30 : -0-01
0.9280 : +0.0110
|Pricing as of 1/5/21 9:11AMEST|
Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar