What a difference a week makes!  Last week, the order of the day was to lament the negative momentum shift that took bond yields up and out of established ranges.  Now we’re already in a position to confirm a return to those ranges.  

Econ Data / Events

  • 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) – Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  

  • Jobless Claims roughly as-expected, with Continued Claims slightly higher than expected.

  • Producer-level inflation fell again, with the annual core reading dropping to 0.3% vs 0.6% last time.

Market Movement Recap

08:57 AM

Bonds sharply stronger overnight, this time more in response to stock market weakness than Fed announcement follow-through.  10yr yields more than 5bps lower at .68%.  UMBS 2.0 starting to struggle with the altitude, but nonetheless up nearly a quarter point  trading around 102.375.

11:10 AM

More stock market weakness and more bond market gains.  10yr yields down 6.5bps to .671.  UMBS 2.0 coupons up nearly 3/8ths of a point now.  Nothing behind the move apart from the risk-off move driven by stocks although the Fed’s re-commitment on bond buying doesn’t hurt.

01:40 PM

Bonds have leveled off at this point, but haven’t jumped back up toward higher yields.  The 30yr bond auction passed without a trace.  UMBS 2.0 coupons are still more than a quarter of a point higher.  10yr yields are roughly unchanged from the last update (.669%)

03:36 PM

10yr yields bounced at 3pm despite an ongoing rout in stocks.  MBS have been losing ground steadily since 2pm and more precipitously (relatively) since 3pm.  Not much behind these moves apart from a reshuffling of trading positions after 2 frantic weeks of volatility.


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

UMBS 2.0

102-07 : +0-02

Treasuries

10 YR

0.6670 : -0.0810

Pricing as of 6/11/20 4:51PMEST

Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates

3:35PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing

2:52PM  :  Treasuries at Best Levels; MBS Lagging a Bit; Stocks Tanking

9:08AM  :  Bonds Extend Overnight Gains After Econ Data


MBS Live Chat Highlights

Oliver Orlicki  :  “Awesome day ahead”

Eric Lawson  :  “I love when the top of the chart goes off the page :)”


Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jun 11
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* May 0.3 0.4 0.6
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 20.929 20.000 21.487
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 1542 1550 1877

By Matthew Graham , dated 2020-06-11 16:53:38

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Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

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