It used to be that rate watchers and mortgage originators could simply tune in to the economic data on any given day and expect a fairly logical and commensurate result to follow in terms of bond market movement. Stronger jobs report? Rates move higher. Weaker retail sales report? Rates move lower.
Fed intervention after the 2008 financial only partially changed the longstanding reaction function. It wasn’t until the economic recovery entered extra innings that traders really stopped caring about how data came out versus expectations. Reason being: any big beat/miss was just one point in time and not indicative of a change in the pace of the expansion.
Now we have coronavirus, and it has almost completely removed any focus on the econ data. The last time we witnessed a measurable reaction was in early June when the labor market data suggested people were getting back to work more quickly than normal. The June 16th reaction to Retail Sales was the only other time we could even entertain a connection.
Today brings the next installment of Retail Sales. It’s joined by Jobless Claims and the historically important Philly Fed Business Index. Will this trio of data be responsible for a big shift in market momentum? Not in any permanent way, no. For that sort of thing, we’d need cooperation from covid numbers, and those don’t adhere to any set schedule.
Bonds are trading very indecisively so far this week, but underlying momentum suggests a bit of caution among fans of low rates.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
102-31 : +0-03
0.6170 : -0.0130
|Pricing as of 7/16/20 8:29AMEST|
Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar