What a difference a week makes!  Last week, the order of the day was to lament the negative momentum shift that took bond yields up and out of established ranges.  Now we’re already in a position to confirm a return to those ranges.  Today’s weakness does little to change that.

Market Movement Recap

08:19 AM

Bonds were weaker overnight almost in perfect unison with stock market strength.  10yr yields are starting out 3.5bps higher (inconsequential in the recent context) and UMBS are less than an eighth of a point weaker.

09:46 AM

A bit more weakness as stocks moved higher at the NYSE Open.  Nothing major in the bigger picture with 10yr yields at .71% vs a range ceiling at .74%.  MBS were briefly down a quarter point, but have bounced back by 0.06 already.

10:35 AM

 bonds have reversed course and are heading back toward ‘unchanged’ levels.  The move coincides with a reversal in stocks

02:05 PM

Both MBS and Treasuries are settling into a consolidation pattern (higher lows and lower highs) heading into the weekend.  Both patterns are playing out at just slightly weaker (but not alarming) levels.  MBS are still down less than an eighth of a point.

04:06 PM

MBS are grinding the day out at the lowest levels.  Treasury yields are near their highs.  There’s no outright sell-off in bonds, but it’s a bit weaker than it was at last check.


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

UMBS 2.0

102-02 : -0-06

Treasuries

10 YR

0.7080 : +0.0550

Pricing as of 6/12/20 4:53PMEST

Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates

3:56PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Treading Water at Lows; Negative Reprice Risk

10:34AM  :  Bonds Reverse Course; MBS Close to Unchanged

9:42AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: MBS Down Nearly a Quarter Point


Economic Calendar

Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jun 12
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%) Jun 3.0 3.2
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%) Jun 2.6 2.7
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Jun 78.9 75.0 72.3
Monday, Jun 15
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Jun -27.50 -48.50
Tuesday, Jun 16
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* May 8.0 -16.4
9:15 Industrial Production (%) May 3.0 -11.2
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Apr -0.8 -0.2
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Jun 45 37
Wednesday, Jun 17
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 311.7
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 3529.0
8:30 House starts mm: change (%) May -30.2
8:30 Build permits: change mm (%) May -21.4
8:30 Building permits: number (ml) May 1.248 1.066
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml) May 1.100 0.891
Thursday, Jun 18
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * Jun -25.0 -43.1
10:00 Leading index chg mm (%) May 2.4 -4.4

By Matthew Graham , dated 2020-06-12 16:55:21

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Courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

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